The best time to buy Lego is November, and the best moment in a set’s life is six to eleven months after its release. That is what 260,577 purchases show that 18,941 participating Brickfact users recorded between November 2022 and October 2026. Across all of them, the median price was 29.3% below the recommended retail price (RRP), and almost half of all purchases (48.0%) were at least 30% off.
Timing matters more than many expect. At the same stage of a set’s life, the median discount in November was 35.7%, in May only 28.6%. A set with an RRP of €100 typically cost about €64 in November and about €71 in May. The biggest difference, though, is between buying a set right after release and buying it a few months later.
Key findings
- November is the cheapest month. For sets at the same life-cycle stage, users paid a median 35.7% below RRP, and 63.7% of purchases were at least 30% off. May was the most expensive month at 28.6%.
- Black Friday really is cheaper. From the Thursday before Black Friday to Cyber Monday, the median discount was 35.0%, and 38.7% of purchases were at least 40% off. On ordinary days, it was 28.6% and 21.5%.
- Not at release. In the first three months after release, users paid a median 20.0% below RRP. Six to eleven months after release, it was 32.5%.
- Before retirement, not long after. Discounts held at about 30% until three months after a set retired. More than two years after retirement, the median price was the RRP, and 42.8% of purchases cost more than that.
- Star Wars Day is the worst time. From 1 to 5 May, the median discount was just 21.4%.
- Themes differ a lot. Friends, Minecraft, Ninjago and Technic were typically 35% to 40% below RRP. Icons, Ideas and Disney were around 22% to 23%, BrickHeadz at RRP.
The cheapest month: November
To compare months fairly, we only use sets at the same stage of their life: bought three to 23 months after release and more than three months before a known retirement date. Otherwise, the months would mostly reflect which sets people buy. May, for example, has many new releases and almost no sets about to retire, while November and December have plenty of both.
| Month | Purchases | Median discount | 30%+ off |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 12,068 | 31.0% | 53.7% |
| February | 11,044 | 32.8% | 55.7% |
| March | 9,518 | 30.0% | 50.3% |
| April | 9,926 | 29.3% | 47.8% |
| May | 14,510 | 28.6% | 45.6% |
| June | 11,092 | 30.0% | 49.1% |
| July | 11,086 | 30.8% | 53.8% |
| August | 9,467 | 29.6% | 48.4% |
| September | 8,103 | 33.7% | 60.5% |
| October | 8,633 | 32.7% | 56.8% |
| November | 14,501 | 35.7% | 63.7% |
| December | 13,384 | 33.3% | 57.9% |
November leads clearly, followed by September, December, February and October. From March to August, the median stayed between 28.6% and 30.8%. The share of really good buys shows the same pattern: in November, almost two in three purchases were at least 30% below RRP; in May, fewer than half were.
Without the life-cycle filter, the order stays the same, but the gaps shrink: November 30.6%, December 30.1%, May 26.0%. The ranking also holds when every user counts once rather than every purchase: the median of each user’s own median is 34.3% in November and 26.8% in May.
Black Friday, Prime Day and Star Wars Day
Shopping events stand out even more than months. For the four Black Friday weekends from 2022 to 2025, we counted the Thursday before Black Friday through Cyber Monday.
| Period | Purchases | Median discount | 30%+ off | 40%+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black Friday to Cyber Monday | 9,848 | 35.0% | 63.1% | 38.7% |
| Amazon Prime Day (July) | 2,185 | 33.3% | 60.6% | 23.6% |
| 1 to 24 December | 24,490 | 32.0% | 56.3% | 32.8% |
| All other days | 216,859 | 28.6% | 46.6% | 21.5% |
| 1 to 5 May (Star Wars Day) | 7,195 | 21.4% | 38.6% | 15.4% |
Black Friday week was the best period in our data. Not only was the median higher, deep discounts were also much more common: almost four in ten purchases were at least 40% off. Amazon’s Prime Day in July comes close, although we cannot tell which shop each purchase came from. The days before Christmas were still better than an ordinary day.
Star Wars Day on 4 May is the opposite. Lego and many retailers advertise it heavily, but the discounts users actually got were the smallest of the year. Promotions at that time often come as gifts with purchase or bonus points rather than a lower price, and many new Star Wars sets launch then, which are rarely discounted at first.
Not every year looks the same
November is a strong month, but no guarantee. We split the four years into twelve-month periods from November to October:
| Twelve months | Cheapest month | Most expensive month |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2022 to Oct 2023 | November (35.7%) | June (25.0%) |
| Nov 2023 to Oct 2024 | November (36.7%) | May (28.9%) |
| Nov 2024 to Oct 2025 | September (40.0%) | January (30.0%) |
| Nov 2025 to Oct 2026 | November (36.2%) | January (30.0%) |
November was the cheapest month in three of four periods. Between November 2024 and October 2025, September came out on top. A good offer can come up in any month. If you need a set now and the price is right, there is little reason to wait.
Buy six to eleven months after release
The most important factor is a set’s age. New sets are rarely discounted much: many launch at Lego and a few retailers first. After a few months, more shops stock them, and the price falls.
| Bought after release | Purchases | Median discount | 30%+ off |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 2 months | 40,174 | 20.0% | 30.9% |
| 3 to 5 months | 30,964 | 31.3% | 53.3% |
| 6 to 11 months | 57,247 | 32.5% | 56.5% |
| 12 to 17 months | 50,327 | 30.0% | 52.7% |
| 18 to 23 months | 31,739 | 30.0% | 50.1% |
| 24 to 35 months | 29,019 | 27.4% | 43.5% |
| 36 months or later | 21,107 | 26.6% | 41.7% |
In the first three months, users paid a median 20.0% below RRP, and fewer than a third of purchases were at least 30% off. From the third month, the median rose to 31.3%, and it peaked at 32.5% six to eleven months after release. After two years, discounts became smaller again. Older sets are often harder to find and are sometimes bought from resellers.
Before retirement, not long after
When Lego retires a set (end of life, EOL), its price does not change at first. Many retailers still clear remaining stock at a discount. The picture changes a few months later.
| Bought | Purchases | Median discount | 30%+ off | Above RRP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| more than 24 months before | 24,937 | 30.0% | 50.7% | 5.2% |
| 13 to 24 months before | 49,144 | 29.9% | 48.9% | 5.3% |
| 7 to 12 months before | 48,368 | 30.0% | 50.3% | 5.6% |
| 4 to 6 months before | 21,193 | 29.2% | 47.9% | 6.0% |
| 0 to 3 months before | 53,380 | 29.7% | 48.4% | 5.8% |
| 1 to 3 months after | 21,250 | 30.0% | 50.8% | 11.5% |
| 4 to 6 months after | 9,552 | 24.7% | 41.4% | 17.6% |
| 7 to 12 months after | 12,722 | 21.4% | 37.0% | 19.9% |
| 13 to 24 months after | 18,579 | 16.6% | 30.2% | 27.9% |
| more than 24 months after | 47,499 | 0.0% | 19.5% | 42.8% |
Up to and including the first three months after retirement, users paid a median of about 30% below RRP. After that, discounts shrank quickly: to 24.7% after four to six months, 16.6% after one to two years, and 0.0% after more than two years. By then, 42.8% of purchases cost more than the RRP. Our study of Lego prices after retirement shows how market values develop over the following years.
If you want a set that is about to retire, waiting rarely pays off. The final months before retirement were no more expensive than earlier ones in our data.
Themes: where discounts are biggest
The theme affects the price as much as the month does. The table shows every theme with at least 300 users and ten sets in the period.
| Theme | Purchases | Sets | Median discount | 30%+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avatar | 1,796 | 10 | 40.0% | 68.4% |
| Classic | 808 | 38 | 40.0% | 68.8% |
| Friends | 1,322 | 157 | 39.9% | 71.6% |
| Minecraft | 2,700 | 85 | 37.0% | 69.6% |
| Fortnite | 1,010 | 15 | 36.3% | 65.0% |
| Spider-Man | 633 | 22 | 36.2% | 67.0% |
| Ninjago | 4,596 | 132 | 35.4% | 65.4% |
| Jurassic World | 2,444 | 39 | 35.1% | 64.4% |
| Technic | 10,208 | 114 | 35.0% | 63.3% |
| City | 8,064 | 229 | 34.2% | 62.9% |
| Art | 1,043 | 23 | 34.0% | 58.6% |
| One Piece | 854 | 11 | 33.8% | 68.6% |
| Super Mario | 3,210 | 69 | 33.3% | 56.1% |
| Botanicals | 891 | 21 | 32.9% | 53.8% |
| Speed Champions | 22,326 | 55 | 32.2% | 57.8% |
| Architecture | 4,696 | 19 | 32.0% | 55.0% |
| Marvel Super Heroes | 10,131 | 137 | 31.4% | 55.1% |
| Harry Potter | 17,780 | 108 | 31.2% | 53.8% |
| Star Wars | 86,916 | 193 | 30.0% | 48.9% |
| Creator | 5,616 | 97 | 29.9% | 48.9% |
| DC Comics Super Heroes | 3,228 | 32 | 28.0% | 45.9% |
| Icons | 21,678 | 109 | 23.3% | 34.8% |
| Ideas | 9,039 | 54 | 22.8% | 30.6% |
| Disney | 7,630 | 146 | 21.8% | 37.6% |
| BrickHeadz | 12,891 | 60 | 0.0% | 20.3% |
Many play themes for children, such as Friends, Minecraft, Ninjago or Jurassic World, and Technic were typically 35% to 40% below RRP. Star Wars, the theme with by far the most purchases, was exactly at the overall level with 30.0%. The large sets for adults are a different story: Icons and Ideas were only about 23% below RRP, and only about a third of purchases reached 30% off. BrickHeadz were mostly bought at full price.
For collector sets, a discount of 20% to 25% is therefore already a good price, while for a Technic or Ninjago set it is just average.
UK and US: different patterns
The main analysis uses purchases in euros. Users also recorded 12,865 purchases in pounds and 31,349 in dollars. The month comparison below uses all purchases in the retail phase, without the life-cycle filter.
| Month | UK (£) | US ($) |
|---|---|---|
| January | 24.5% | 1.7% |
| February | 25.4% | 1.3% |
| March | 24.5% | 7.4% |
| April | 26.1% | 3.9% |
| May | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| June | 24.8% | 7.4% |
| July | 30.0% | 19.0% |
| August | 22.2% | 13.0% |
| September | 30.8% | 12.0% |
| October | 26.7% | 16.0% |
| November | 28.9% | 20.0% |
| December | 28.0% | 16.6% |
In the UK, September (30.8%) and July (30.0%) were slightly better than November (28.9%), and May was again the most expensive month (21.4%). In the US, discounts were much smaller overall. The best months were November (20.0%) and July (19.0%), the month of Prime Day; in May, users paid a median of exactly the RRP.
What this means when you shop
- Don’t buy right after release. Unless you want a set immediately, wait three months or more. The median discount rose from 20.0% to 31.3%.
- Plan bigger purchases for November. Black Friday week had the most deep discounts. Set a price alert for the sets on your list beforehand, so you can tell a real deal from an ordinary price. Our Black Friday guide covers the dates and offers.
- Buy retiring sets in time. Up to about three months after retirement, the price was still normal. After that, it rose steadily.
- Judge a deal by its theme. 25% off an Icons set is good, 25% off a Technic set is not.
- Compare current prices. The Lego deals page lists today’s biggest discounts with delivery costs. Our Lego investment study shows what buying cheaply means for collectors in the long run.
Methodology
Data. The study uses purchases that Brickfact users record themselves in the app or on the website: set, date, quantity, price per set and condition. We included purchases of new, sealed sets dated from 1 November 2022 to 31 October 2026: four complete twelve-month periods, so every calendar month appears four times. The data was read on 6 November 2026.
Selection. To keep dates reliable, a purchase must have been recorded within 60 days after its purchase date. Histories entered later often carry approximate dates. We excluded quantities above 100 and prices below 30% or above 400% of the RRP, which are usually entry errors or bundles. Sets need an RRP of at least €5 (or £5 or $5).
Discount. The discount is the difference between the price paid and the current RRP in the same currency. Every purchase counts equally. The median means that half of all purchases had at least this discount. Unless stated otherwise, we use purchases in the retail phase: from the release month until the retirement month.
Privacy. The analysis runs inside the database and only produces totals. Individual users cannot be identified: every published value is based on at least 50 users, every theme on at least 300.
Limitations. The data describes participating Brickfact users, many of whom are collectors, not all Lego buyers. We compare with today’s RRP, not the RRP on the purchase date; where Lego raised a set’s RRP, older purchases look a little cheaper than they were. The shop is not recorded, and depending on the entry, the price may or may not include shipping. The results show when users paid less; they are no guarantee of future prices.
Frequently asked questions
When is Lego cheapest?
In our data, November: for sets at the same life-cycle stage, users paid a median 35.7% below RRP. The cheapest days were Black Friday week, from the Thursday before Black Friday to Cyber Monday, at 35.0%. May was the most expensive month.
Is Black Friday worth it for Lego?
Yes. During Black Friday week, 63.1% of purchases were at least 30% below RRP, compared with 46.6% on other days. Check the price history before you buy, though: not every Black Friday price is a deal.
Should I buy new Lego sets at release?
Only if you want the set straight away. In the first three months after release, the median discount was 20.0%. Three to 23 months after release, it was 30% or more.
Do Lego sets get cheaper after retirement?
Only for a short time. Up to three months after retirement, users paid a median of about 30% below RRP. More than two years later, they paid the full RRP or more.
Which Lego themes have the biggest discounts?
Friends, Minecraft, Ninjago, Technic and other play themes were typically 35% to 40% below RRP. Icons, Ideas and Disney were about 22% to 23%, BrickHeadz at RRP.
Are the figures representative?
They describe purchases recorded by participating Brickfact users, not all Lego buyers. Dedicated collectors who track their sets are probably over-represented.
